The proposed tobacco settlement mandates continued cigarette sales for 20+ years

There are many good reasons to doubt the sincerity of tobacco companies when they say they want to end the sale of combustible cigarettes.   There are no good reason for provincial governments to have included a requirement that they keep selling conventional cigarettes for decades to come.

This post reports on the "covenant" to maintain tobacco sales that is contained in the settlement made public last week. 

The covenants

Under each of the three individualized forms of the settlement, each company has undertaken to "not conduct their businesses and operations, divest assets, rearrange ownership, and/or alter their corporate structures, and/or operational practices, in any manner that circumvents or is adverse to the ability ...  to satisfy its obligations under the CCAA Plan..."

In short, once this settlement agreement is formally approved by the provinces and by the Ontario court overseeing the insolvency, the companies will be obliged to maintain their tobacco trade with the same enthusiasm and marketing tools that are currently in place. 

Two structural elements of the settlement have led to this condition: (1) the deferral of payments to the provinces over a period of decades and (2) the exclusion of "alternative products" from the terms of the settlement.

Deferred payments 

Most of the money paid to the provinces will come in installments that are spread out over many years. Although $6 billion will be paid from the $12.5 billion in savings that were safeguarded during the years of insolvency protection, the remaining $19 billion in provincial payments will be taken as a percentage of the companies future income on tobacco sales. 

For the first 5 years, the companies will provide 85% of their income, but after every 5 year period the proportion steps down by 5% (Year 6 to 10 at 80%, years 11 to 15 at 75%, etc.) 

Included in the settlement document is a chart ("Estimated Upfront Contribution Available") which forecasts the amount that will be paid in the near future. Between now and 2030, the companies forecast providing about $1 billion per year to the provinces. At that rate, their debt to the provinces will not be met until after 2045.

Because of their covenant, for the next 20-plus years the companies have a legal obligation to maintain current efforts to sell tobacco products

Exclusion of "alternative products"

Payments to the provinces come from tobacco sales, but not from the sale of vaping or heated tobacco products. All "alternative products" are carved out of the CCAA Plan.

To make this exclusion more overt, the companies are required to set up separate companies to manage the sale of these alternative goods. This is largely already the case, in the sense that different corporate structures exist for newer products: for example, Nicoventures is a corporate subsidiary of  BAT. 

“Alternative Product” means (i) any device that produces emissions in the form of an aerosol and is intended to be brought to the mouth for inhalation of the aerosol without burning of (a) a substance; or (b) a mixture of substances; (ii) any substance or mixture of substances, whether or not it contains tobacco or nicotine, that is intended for use with or without those devices to produce emissions in the form of an aerosol without burning; (iii) any non-combustible tobacco (other than smokeless tobacco) or nicotine delivery product; or (iv) any component, part, or accessory of or used in connection with any such device or product referred to above."

The settlement thus provides the companies with an incentive to increase the sales of these newer nicotine products because they can keep all of the revenue. At the same time, they are under an obligation to maintain tobacco sales. The settlement thus puts pressure on the system to increase overall nicotine use. 

Links to each company's proposed agreement and the covenant to maintain tobacco sales. 

Imperial Tobacco:  (British American Tobacco)

ARTICLE 11. COVENANTS AND OTHER PAYMENT ASSURANCE
11.1 Covenants
...

(g) Imperial and its Material Subsidiaries shall conduct their businesses in good faith with a view to fulfilling their obligations pursuant to the Definitive Documents, and shall not conduct their businesses and operations, divest assets, rearrange ownership, and/or alter their corporate structures, and/or operational practices, in any manner that circumvents or is adverse to the ability of Imperial to satisfy its obligations under the CCAA Plan including, the ability of Imperial to pay the Upfront Contributions, Tax Refund Cash Payments and/or Annual Contributions within the Contribution Period; 

JTI-Macdonald  (Japan Tobacco)

ARTICLE 11. COVENANTS AND OTHER PAYMENT ASSURANCE
11.1 Covenants
...

(g) JTIM and its Material Subsidiaries shall conduct their businesses in good faith with a view to fulfilling their obligations pursuant to the Definitive Documents, and shall not conduct their businesses and operations, divest assets, rearrange ownership, and/or alter their corporate structures, and/or operational practices, in any manner that circumvents or is adverse to the ability of JTIM to satisfy its obligations under the CCAA Plan including, the ability of JTIM to pay the Upfront Contributions, Tax Refund Cash Payments and/or Annual Contributions within the Contribution Period; 

Rothmans, Benson & Hedges (Philip Morris)

ARTICLE 11. COVENANTS AND OTHER PAYMENT ASSURANCE
11.1 Covenants
...

(g) RBH and its Material Subsidiaries shall conduct their businesses in good faith with a view to fulfilling their obligations pursuant to the Definitive Documents, and shall not conduct their businesses and operations, divest assets, rearrange ownership, and/or alter their corporate structures, and/or operational practices, in any manner that circumvents or is adverse to the ability of RBH to satisfy its obligations under the CCAA Plan including, the ability of RBH to pay the Upfront Contributions, Tax Refund Cash Payments and/or Annual Contributions within the Contribution Period; 

A closer look at the claims and payments in the proposed settlement

This post focuses on the amount of compensation that would flow to provincial governments, injured smokers and other parties under the proposed settlement between tobacco companies and those suing for damages.

The figures shown below (and in the downloadable fact sheet) are taken from the version of the settlement that is written with BAT-Imperial Tobacco Canada in mind. 

Two and a half cents on the dollar for provincial governments 

The overall claims of the provinces were not based on their initial court filings, but were established through a bespoke formula provided by a consultant (Dr. Glenn Harrison) and detailed in Schedule "G" to the settlement. The claims of the provinces totalled $944.5 billion, making up 98% of the total claims of $964.1 billion. 

A total of $32.5 billion is provided for in the settlement, representing 3.4% of the total identified claims. Each province will receive 2.6% of the amount of its claim, and the total to be provided to provinces is equal to 76% of the payments. 

Thirty to fifty cents on the dollar for eligible smokers.

Quebec class action victims were awarded $13.7 billion by Quebec courts and will receive $4.12 billion. Ignoring inflation, they will receive 30% of their court award. Their claim represents 1.42% of the total claims and 12.7% of the payments.

The Pan Canadian Claimants (smokers in other parts of Canada) will receive 50% of the calculated equivalent of the amount awarded to Quebec claimants, albeit with different eligibility criteria based on limitation periods. Their claims make up 0.52% of the total claims and 7.8% of the payments

Other payments

Tobacco farmers will receive 51.6% of their claim of $29 million dollars (about 3 hundredths of a percent of the total claims)

A foundation will be created, and $1 billion will be provided for its operations. This represents about 3% of the total compensation.

Health voices condemn the provincial tobacco settlements

Late in the day on Thursday, October 17th, a proposed settlement was made public. This settlement would resolve the lawsuits filed by provincial governments, the class action lawsuits filed on behalf of injured smokers and a few other small claims. 

This post reports on the response to the settlement by public health agencies and leaders. 

The terms of the settlement with the provincial government have been widely criticized for their failure to include measures to reduce smoking or to modify the tobacco trade. The portion of the settlement which resolves class action claims has received widespread support.

Representative extracts of media statements and press releases are shown below. 

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Action on Smoking & Health, Physicians for a Smoke-Free Canada, Quebec Coalition for Tobacco Control: Provincial governments have squandered a unique and historic opportunity to put an end to the tobacco industry
Press release, October 17, 2024.

Apart from the compensation to victims or their descendants in Québec and in the rest of Canada, which is the only positive component of this deal, there is little public health benefit to be found in this arrangement. The settlement provides no roadmap aimed at preventing these very same companies from causing more damage by recruiting new victims, including through new enticing nicotine gadgets.

Despite the tobacco industry having its back against the wall, the provinces choose to negotiate themselves a cash windfall without bothering to change the corporate behaviour at the core of the lawsuits. Provinces have deliberately agreed to allow Big Tobacco to maintain its business model extracting profits from addiction and harm in perpetuity. They have shamelessly turned a blind eye to the damage these very same companies will inflict on future generations.

Canadian Cancer Society criticizes proposed tobacco settlement as inadequate
Press release, October 18, 2024

"The approach in the proposed settlement falls massively short and fails to protect the future health of Canadians properly," says Rob Cunningham, lawyer for the Canadian Cancer Society. "How can such an approach possibly be justified when we continue to have millions of Canadians who smoke each year and while tobacco remains the leading cause of cancer death? This settlement fails to support public health efforts to reduce smoking."

The Canadian Lung Association responds to proposed settlement in tobacco lawsuits
Statement, October 18, 2024

We feel that the proposed settlement is not only monetarily insufficient but missing key measures that would prevent the tobacco industry from returning to business as usual.

We urge the government and all parties involved to reconsider this proposed settlement and seek a just outcome that truly addresses the devastating consequences of tobacco-related harm. Canadians have the right to expect a fair and equitable resolution that holds the tobacco industry accountable for its actions and provides adequate compensation for those affected while ensuring that the right supports are in place to protect generations to come.

Campaign for Justice on Tobacco Fraud: Tobacco Settlement Cave In
Press release, October 21, 2024

Tobacco lawyers would argue that the Companies Creditors Arrangement Act exists to ensure the long-term viability of companies that seek protection. We hold that governments ultimately hold all of the cards, legislation, and could have used their muscle in these talks if they had been committed to public health.

"This settlement is an embarrassment," said Mahood. "Other than providing payments to Quebec smokers harmed by the industry and due via a class action court award, the settlement has no redeeming value. It should be abandoned, not the kids who will be harmed by an industry restored to good health."

Michael Chaiton, Senior Scientist, CAMH
City News, October 18, 2024

“The lesson of these lawsuits is that cigarettes … should not be a profitable consumer product and that there are alternatives available, he said."

“Functionally, I think some of the settlement protects the companies to allow them to continue to sell those products in particular, rather than switching over.”

David Hammond, Professor, University of Waterloo
City News, October 18, 2024

"Their business practices essentially haven't changed and won't change," said Hammond.

"The industry still generates billions of profits from cigarettes, and so I think they will continue the practices that have been generating that revenue."

Rob Cunningham, Canadian Cancer Society
CBC News, October 18, 2024

Rob Cunningham, senior policy analyst for the Canadian Cancer Society, says the proposal does not go far enough. He's calling on the provinces to make changes before it's approved.

"This proposed settlement contains nothing to actually reduce smoking," Cunningham said Friday in an interview with CBC News Network.

Cynthia Callard, Physicians for a Smoke-Free Canada
National Post, October 18, 2024

Callard said the provinces could have taken a much different approach to this suit focused on winding down the industry.

“The government had the option to force the companies into bankruptcy and to find an orderly way to wind up down their business and to actually chase out smoking. Instead, they’ve given them carte blanche to operate,” she said.

Callard said she expects the proposed deal will go through. She said while the deal is a disappointment it is also an opportunity for governments to step up and do a better job regulating the industry, both cigarettes and vaping, because they have failed to do so in the past.

“Obviously, the industry did wrong, it hurt people, that’s what they’re settling about. But governments stood back in those years and let the company operate in that inadequately regulated way,” she said.

Provinces, class actions and tobacco companies reach a deal.

This evening a proposed settlement to resolve the many Canadian tobacco lawsuits was made public. The 1437 page draft agreement can be downloaded here. 

The litigation efforts behind this effort have spanned a generation. The first provincial lawsuit was filed by British Columbia in November 1998 and resubmitted in January 2001). During this time, tobacco companies continued to sell cigarettes, governments continued to collect taxes, and smokers continued to die. 

Over the past 66 months, there has been complete secrecy by the provincial governments in their handling of negotiations with tobacco companies. With the proposed settlement now made public, there is an opportunity for legislators and the public to engage in an assessment of the proposal and to offer guidance to government with respect to the next steps in this process.

In evaluating the proposal, Canadians might consider the following questions:

• Will this settlement change the behaviour of the tobacco companies? 
• Does this settlement provide justice to smokers?
• Are there important and relevant issues which are not resolved by this settlement?

Included in the plan

In brief, the plan proposes that the companies will pay a total of $32.5 billion, of which the amount that has been held in reserve during the insolvency process (about $12.5 billion) will be available after the agreement is approved by court. $20 billion will be provided to provincial governments in deferred payments.

* $24.8 billion will be paid to the provinces, including a deferred payment of about $18 billion. This will settle the claims of over $500 billion filed by the provinces since 2001.  Unlike the U.S. agreements, these payments will be made as a percentage of revenue from tobacco sales, starting with a remittance of 85% of net after tax income from tobacco sales. (The companies will keep all of their revenue from vaping or other products). 

* $6.75 billion will be paid to some smokers who have suffered from lung cancer, throat cancer or emphysema. Of this, $4.25 billion will be paid to smokers in Quebec whose claim was upheld by the Quebec courts following a class action suit. $2.5 billion will be paid to injured smokers in other parts of Canada, even though there were no lawsuits resolved for these cases.  Up to $100,000 will be paid to each Quebec victim, and up to $60,000 to each victim in other parts of Canada. Money for these payments will be made available soon after the agreement is approved by court.

* $1 billion will be used to establish a foundation focused on activities to support victims who do not direct compensation. $131 million from the Quebec Class Action will be directed to this fund. These payments will not be deferred.

* Lesser amounts to additional claimants (tobacco farmers, the "Knight" class action", etc). 

Not included in the plan

This agreement contains no admission of liability on the part of the companies. Nor does it include any concessions or undertakings by the industry with respect to the way they market tobacco, nicotine or other products. 

The next steps

Because this settlement is being negotiated through Canada's insolvency laws, the settlement is not final until the provincial government, class action and other "creditors" of the three companies vote to approve it. That vote is scheduled for December 12, 2024.  Court hearings to formally approve the agreement would be held at a later date.

A claims procedure has been established for injured Quebec smokers, who can submit their claim through the following portal: www.recourstabac.com

Financial Context:

Over the period of these lawsuits:

• 784,000 Canadians have died as a result of tobacco use.
  Under the settlement the companies will pay just over $40,000 for each Canadian killed by their products in the last 24 years. 
• Canadian governments have collected $166.6 billion in tobacco taxes ($98.7 billion by provincial and $68.9 by the federal government.) 
  Under the settlement, the companies will pay the equivalent of a 20% increase in the tobacco taxes they collected from smokers over the past 24 years. 
• Over 666 billion cigarettes (33 billion standard packages) have been legally sold 
  Under the agreement, the companies will pay the equivalent of $1 for each package of cigarettes sold over the past 24 years. 
• Industry revenue from cigarette sales has exceeded $72 billion.
  Under the agreement, the companies will pay about 40% of their cigarette revenue over the past 24 years.

Mistakes happen

The bad news is that the data from the Canadian Community Health Survey released by Statistics Canada earlier this week were incorrect. The good news is that the growth in vaping rates is lower than indicated by the data published on Wednesday.

Statistics Canada reached out earlier today to inform us that "the numbers cited in your message have actually been revised for the 2022 reference period. When we published yesterday, we had not known that there was an error in the coding of the indicator for past 30 day vaping/e-cigarette use. ... we have released the corrected numbers for 2022 (Health indicator statistics, annual estimates (statcan.gc.ca)), which show 1.7 million vapers or 5.7% of the adult population, rather than the numbers we had mistakenly published yesterday (1.3 million/4.8%)."

The corrected figures are shown below:

The growth in the vaping population as measured by this survey between 2022 and 2023 was thus 168,700. We still do not know whether these individuals are people who used vaping to quit smoking, or whether vaping products are their introduction to nicotine use, or whether they both smoke and vape. Such tabulations are not difficult, but they require access to the data files (not currently available to non-University-based researchers).

Information on smoking status was readily available to the public when the Canadian Tobacco and Nicotine Survey was in the field from late 2019 to early 2013. The last wave of that now-defunct survey found 240,100 more vapers in 2022-23 than in 2021-22. Of those, 206,900 (86%) were never smokers.